I-Europe kanye nemindeni yase-United Statesukugcinwa kwamandlaukuthuthukiswa ngesivinini
Ngaphansi komgomo we "Bicarbon", amandla amasha amelwe yi-PV abone ukukhula okusheshayo ngaphansi kwezinqubomgomo ezivumayo.Ngokuvuthwa kweukugcinwa kwamandlaubuchwepheshe kanye nokwehliswa kwezindleko, izimo zasekhaya nazo zikhula kancane kancane zibe insimu ebalulekile yokusetshenziswa kwamandla amasha.Ikakhulukazi ezimakethe zaphesheya kwezilwandle, amanani kagesi wezindawo zokuhlala ayaqhubeka nokukhuphuka ngaphansi komnotho wasekhayaukugcinwa kwamandla kugqanyiswe kancane kancane, kuhlanganiswe noxhaso lwezezimali lohulumeni ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukuthandwa kwalo ngokushesha.
Kusukela ohlangothini lwesidingo, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukunyuka okuqhubekayo kwamanani kagesi kwaholela ekwenyukeni okukhulu kwesidingo sokugcinwa kwamandla kagesi.Kusukela kungxabano yaseRussia-Ukraine, amazwe aseYurophu agcwele amandla emali kanye nenkinga yamandla, amanani wamandla ayaqhubeka nokukhuphuka.Ngokusho kwe-Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) eLondon, intengo yegesi yemvelo yesikhathi esizayo ifinyelele ku-$2,861.6 per 1,000 cubic metres ngo-August 22, irekhodi eliphakeme ezindaweni eziningi zegesi yemvelo yaseYurophu, efinyelela irekhodi eliphakeme kakhulu kusukela ngo-1996.Ukusatshalaliswa okuqinile kwegesi yemvelo okuqhubekayo kuholele ekwenyukeni kwentengo kagesi.Lokhu kugqugquzele kakhulu ukusetshenziswa kwamandla kagesi we-photovoltaic (PV) ezimeni zasekhaya, kanye nasekhaya.ukugcinwa kwamandla kuqhume.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukungazinzi kokuphakelwa kukagesi kuye kwaqinisa isidingo sokuhlala.Ingxenye yomphakathi yaphesheya kwezilwandle ihlakazekile, izindleko eziphezulu zokwakhiwa kwegridi kanye nokuthuthukiswa okulandelayo kubuthakathaka, amandla okuxhumanisa igridi abuthakathaka, ikakhulukazi ngaphansi kwethonya lesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu, ukunqamuka kukagesi okukhulu okuhlukahlukene kwenzeka njalo, ukuzinza kwamandla kagesi abahlali bampofu.Nasekhayaukugcinwa kwamandlaingahlinzeka ngamandla aphuthumayo lapho igridi yamandla omphakathi ihluleka noma ukunikezwa kwamandla kagesi okungazinzile, kuthuthukisa ukuzinza kukagesi.
Kusukela ohlangothini lokuhlinzeka, i-photovoltaic kwezobuchwepheshe, isicelo kanye nezinye izici zokwakheka kwesistimu evuthiwe, futhi kwezinye izifunda ezithuthukile zaphesheya kwezilwandle ezinezinga eliphezulu lokungena.Ngemodi yokuthuthukiswa kwe-photovoltaic kusuka kuxhaso, uhlobo lokufinyelela ku-inthanethi olugcwele kuya ekushayeleni kwayo kwezomnotho, uguquko lokuzisebenzisa oluzenzela wena, olusekela isidingoukugcinwa kwamandlakancane kancane eze phambili.
Ngaphansi kwethonya lalolu bhubhane, ukushoda kwe-supply chain nezinye izici, ikhaya elisha lomhlaba wonkeukugcinwa kwamandlaimakethe ngo-2021 isalokhu ikhula ngendlela ephakeme, enosayizi omusha ofakiwe ongu-18.3GW wamaphrojekthi okugcina amandla asebenzayo, okuwukukhula ngo-185% unyaka nonyaka.Phakathi kwabo, iYurophu kanye nomkhaya wase-United Statesukugcinwa kwamandlango-2021, ukuphinda kabili izinga lokukhula lonyaka kubonise inkambiso yokukhula eqhumayo.2021 US efakwe umthamo weukugcinwa kwamandlaifinyelele ku-3.51GW/10.50GWh, iphindwe kane unyaka nonyaka.Idatha efanelekile ibonisa ukuthi umthamo omusha ofakiwe uzofinyelela ku-63.4GW/202.5GWh ngo-2021-2026, lapho umndeni ungafinyelela ku-4.9GW/14.3GWh.
Ukuncintisana okuqinile phakathi kwamabhizinisi emkhakheni wekhayaukugcinwa kwamandla
Uhlangothi lwesidingo nohlangothi lokunikezela kudala ukushisa kwemakethe, futhi amabhizinisi omhlaba nawo asheshisa ukwakheka kwendluukugcinwa kwamandlainkambu.Idatha efanelekile ibonisa ukuthi umndeni we-TOP3ukugcinwa kwamandlaabahlinzeki ngo-2021 yi-Tesla, i-Pylon Technology ne-BYD, ibalwa ku-18%, 14% no-11% ngokulandelanayo.
Ukuze wenze umnotho wekhayaukugcinwa kwamandlakuphinde kuqokonyiswe emakethe, ngoJulayi walo nyaka, u-Tesla wahlanganyela nensiza yaseCalifornia i-PG&E ukuze bakhe isizinda samandla esibonakalayo esisha, ehlinzeka abasebenzisi abafanelekile be-Powerwall ngesinxephezelo esingu-$2 nge-kWh ngayinye.Kubikwa ukuthi kuzoba nabasebenzisi be-Powerwall abangu-50,000 abafanelekela uxhaso.Uma silinganisela kusukela esidingweni semakethe sikagesi kanye nenani labasebenzisi be-Powerwall, ngaso sonke isikhathi lapho kuthunyelwa amandla, umsebenzisi uzothola imali engu-$10-60.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukubhekana nokukhula okusheshayo kwesidingo semakethe, amabhizinisi asekhaya nawo asheshisa ukwanda kokukhiqiza.NgoJuni kulo nyaka, iPylon Technology yasheshisa ukunwetshwa kokuphela okuyinhloko kokukhishwa okuhlongozwayo kwamasheya entweni ethile ukuze kuqoqwe inani elingekho ngaphezu kwama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-5, ukuze kutshalwe imali ekwakhiweni komthamo wokukhiqiza wonyaka we-10GWh core kanye ulayini wokukhiqiza wokuhlanganisa uhlelo kanye nezinsiza ezihambisanayo, indlunkulu kanye nephrojekthi eyisisekelo yezimboni kanye nemali yokusebenza eyengeziwe.
Esinye isibonelo uGoodwe oyiphayona ekhayaukugcinwa kwamandlaama-inverters, eyethule uchungechunge lwe-LynxHome F high-voltageukugcinwa kwamandlaamabhethri anomklamo ostakiwe, angakwazi ukubona inhlanganisela eguquguqukayo yokunwetshwa komthamo webhethri ongu-6.6-16kWh, futhi anganikeza amandla aqinile okunikezwa kwamandla kwasendlini.Inkampani yebhethri i-PengHui energy in one fall swoop ukuze ibe eyezwe lonkeukugcinwa kwamandlaukuthunyelwa kwebhethri kumabhizinisi we-2021 TOP2, kwashiwo ngaphambili, indlu yenkampaniukugcinwa kwamandlaimikhiqizo ngonyaka odlule idlulise isitifiketi se-Europe ne-Australia, futhi ithole inani elikhulu lama-oda.
Umndeniukugcinwa kwamandlaithrekhi "iqhwa eliwugqinsi omude"?
Imboni ngokuvamile ikholelwa ukuthi lo nyaka unyaka wokuqala weukugcinwa kwamandlaimakethe.Ukukhula kwekhaya kwamanjeukugcinwa kwamandla, ukuze lesi sitatimende siqinisekiswe.Ngakho, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, umndeniukugcinwa kwamandlamarket "slope" futhi kuyoba isikhathi esingakanani?
Ngokombono wezindleko zokusetshenziswa kwendawo yokuhlala, indluukugcinwa kwamandlakanye ne-photovoltaic yasendlini esekela ukonga okwengeziwe.Eminyakeni emibili edlule, izinga lokungena kwe-photovoltaic yasendlini liye landa kakhulu.Ngokwezibalo ze-Infolink, kulindeleke ukuthi izinga lokungena kwe-PV yase-US kanye nekhaya laseJalimane likhuphuke lisuka ku-3.3% no-11.1% liye ku-6.6% kanye no-21.5% ngo-2025. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, i-US, izinga lokuhlanganisa isitoreji esibonakalayo saseJalimane nalo ngcono, izosuka ku-0.25% ngo-2020, 2.39%, iye ku-1.24% ngo-2025, 10.02%, ukuze kukhuliswe ukwanda izikhathi ezingu-4.96, izikhathi ezingu-4.19.
Ukukhuphuka kwezinga lokungena kwesitoreji esibonakalayo, kuzoletha indawo ethile yokuthuthukisa indawo yokugcina amandla yasendlini.Futhi ngokwanda kwezimoto zikagesi nezinye izinto zamandla kagesi, ukusetshenziswa kukagesi komuntu ngamunye kubahlali nakho kuzokhuphuka, ngaleyo ndlela kukhuthaze ukukhushulwa kwamandla esistimu eyodwa yokugcina ukukhanya, okuletha indawo enkulu yokukhula kwemboni.
Njengamanje, umndeni womhlaba wonkeukugcinwa kwamandlaImakethe ekhulayo igxile kakhulu eYurophu nase-United States emelwe yiJalimane ne-United States, futhi ukukhula kwayo kuqhutshwa ukusekelwa kwenqubomgomo, ukufakwa kwe-PV yasendlini kanyeukugcinwa kwamandlaukukhuphuka kwezinga lokungena.Idatha ye-HIS Markit ibonisa ukuthi ngo-2020, umndeni womhlaba wonkeukugcinwa kwamandlaigxile kakhulu eYurophu, eJalimane, e-Italy, e-United Kingdom, naseJapane, e-Australia, e-United States njalonjalo, lapho umndeni ohlangeneukugcinwa kwamandlaamandla eJalimane, i-United States, Japan kanye nesabelo sendlu sase-Australia esihlangeneukugcinwa kwamandlaifinyelela ku-74.8%.
Ngokusho kwedatha ka-2021, endliniukugcinwa kwamandla Imakethe, i-Tesla, namandla ayo omkhiqizo avelele kanye nomphumela womkhiqizo, ibalwe ku-15% wemindeni yomhlaba wonke.ukugcinwa kwamandlaimakethe, ilandelwa yiPylon Technology, ibhizinisi elivela eChina, elinesabelo esingu-13%.Ngaphezu kwalokho, abakhiqizi basekhaya abanjengoMANDLA OMKHULU, TITHIUM, SUNGROW, DEYE, Goodwe,sofar New Energy, njll. nabo bayasheshisa ukwakheka kwemakethe yaphesheya kwezilwandle.
Ngokuvamile, isethi ephelele yendluukugcinwa kwamandlakufaka phakathi i-photovoltaic,ukugcinwa kwamandlai-inverter,ukugcinwa kwamandlaibhethri nezinye izingxenye kanye nezingxenye nezinye izindleko, okuwumgogodla wazo kakhuluukugcinwa kwamandlaibhethri kanyeukugcinwa kwamandlai-inverter.2021 isilinganiso sezindleko zehadiwe zasendliniukugcinwa kwamandlacishe i-2.8 yuan / Wh, ngokusho kweukugcinwa kwamandlaIsilinganiso sezindleko zonyaka zokwehla kwesilinganiso esingu-5%, kulindeleke ukuba sibe ngu-2025 ekhayaukugcinwa kwamandlausayizi emakethe mayelana 111.7 billion yuan.
Kusukela kulo nyaka, isidingo forukugcinwa kwamandlaimishini eYurophu ikhule kakhulu.Ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuhlinzekwa kwemakethe, amaShayinaukugcinwa kwamandlauchungechunge lwezimboni nalo luphendule ngokushesha.Izibalo zeCustoms zibonisa ukuthi engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka, ukuthunyelwa kweChina kwamabhethri e-lithium-ion kukhuphuke ngo-36.8% unyaka nonyaka, kanti umthamo wama-inverters othunyelwa kwamanye amazwe unyuke ngo-576.7% unyaka nonyaka.Okwamanje, umndeniukugcinwa kwamandlanamabhethri amancane ayaqhubeka nokushoda, abakhiqizi be-PV inverter ngokusebenzisa ukuthunyelwa okubushelelezi kwesiteshi sokuqalaukugcinwa kwamandlaimikhiqizo ye-inverter, intengo yokuthengisa kanye nenzuzo yokugcina izinga eliphezulu, ikhayaukugcinwa kwamandlaimikhiqizo iba iphuzu elibalulekile lokukhula ekusebenzeni kwayo kwesikhathi esizayo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Nov-28-2023